Week 4 features an AFC tilt between the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium.
Both teams’ offenses have been abysmal through three weeks, so my Browns vs. Raiders predictions are fading both units in my NFL picks for September 29, 2024.
Browns vs Raiders prediction
My best betUnder 36.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Deshaun Watson continues to disappoint as a member of the Cleveland Browns. The former Pro Bowl quarterback grades out as the 23rd-best QB in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, carrying a 59.9 passing grade into Sunday’s matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders.
It’s not as if the matchups have been unkind to Watson, either, with the Jaguars and Giants giving him fits over the last two weeks. In theory, a 1-2 Las Vegas Raiders team wouldn’t stand to bother him all that much, but they do still sit 17th in success rate allowed per dropback after ranking 11th last season.
Most of the personnel has returned for Las Vegas, and if it stays the course in the secondary, a talented group of pass-rushers should pick things back up against one of the offensive lines in football.
The thing is, Gardner Minshew hasn’t been all that better — and with a couple more bad games, he may lose his hold on a starting job. Cleveland’s pass rush has been excellent, and as a result, it ranks 12th in success rate allowed per dropback.
Facing an even weaker offensive line that has turned to two rookies due to injuries and the struggles of Dylan Parham, things should remain bleak for the Raiders offense.
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Browns vs Raiders same-game parlay
Under 36Deshaun Watson Over 21.5 rushing yardsGardner Minshew Over 0.5 interceptions
+525 at BetMGM
As we bet on a miserable game featuring little offense, we’ll have to get creative with our same-game parlay. It’ll start with Watson, whose arm has let him down with a 57.76% completion percentage through three games — including averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.
With Las Vegas flaunting a defensive line that features Maxx Crosby and the Browns’ O-line continuing to struggle, Watson will be bailing out of the pocket and turning to his legs. He’s rushed just about five times per game, gaining 6.07 yards per attempt and twice eclipsing this number.
Meanwhile, Cleveland ranked in the Top 10 for interceptions per game last season and has already picked off two passes this year. Minshew’s thrown exactly one interception in each of his three starts, and he should be in danger of another on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Browns vs Raiders odds
Browns vs Raiders live odds
Browns vs Raiders opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland -1.5 | Las Vegas +1.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland -115 | Las Vegas -105
- Over/Under: Over 39.5 | Under 39.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Browns vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
- After opening at -115 on the moneyline, bettors quickly corrected the market by flipping the Raiders around as underdogs. They would shoot back down to around -125 before jetting back in the other direction to settle at +115.
- While 54% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are on the Browns, they’ve accounted for 77% of the handle.
- The total has steadily fallen from the opening number of 39.5, quickly dipping to 38.5 in the first hours of the betting window before hitting 36.5 on Saturday morning.
- The Over has taken 56% of the tickets but just 30% of the cash.
