The Carolina Panthers look to build on their momentum from their first win of the year as they host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Colts will try to snap a three-game losing streak and desperately need to fix some holes on the defensive side of the ball.
NFL odds opened with the Colts as 3-point road favorites for this Week 9 matchup with the Over/Under at 44.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Colts vs. Panthers on November 5.
Colts vs Panthers odds
Colts vs Panthers predictions
The Colts have been decent on offense but terrible on defense over the last few weeks. They’ve surrendered at least 37 points in each of their last three games despite facing underwhelming attacks like the Saints and Browns during that span.
The Panthers have struggled on offense but do seem to be trending in the right direction after Thomas Brown took over as their play-caller and helped guide Bryce Young to his best game as a pro last week. The rookie QB completed 71% of his passes for 235 yards and had a passer rating of 103.6 against the Texans. Despite that performance, Carolina couldn’t move the ball on the ground and ended the game with just 15 points, although they still pulled off their first win of the year.
Although Young seems to be making progress, he’s still held back by a poor group of receivers and a weak interior on the offensive line. That’s bad news against an Indianapolis defensive line that’s anchored by Pro Bowl tackle DeForest Buckner. As bad as Indy’s secondary has been this year, Carolina’s receivers don’t get enough separation to exploit that weakness.
On the other side of the ball, Carolina has been solid against the pass but has been awful against the run, ranking 32nd in defensive rush EPA and 31st in success rate. The Colts ground game is hitting its stride with Zack Moss running hard and All-Pro Jonathan Taylor shaking off the rust after a lengthy absence. Taylor and Moss combined for 161 yards on 23 carries last week, and they should be able to gash this Panthers D.
The Panthers are coming off a much-needed win but this is a bit of a letdown spot for a team that began the year 0-6 straight up with four defeats coming by double-digits. The Colts aren’t quite as terrible as their recent losing streak would indicate, and they should be able to win and cover here, especially with this spread still available at under a field goal.
My best bet: Colts -2.5 (-108 at DraftKings)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Colts vs Panthers same-game parlay
Colts -2.5Over 43.5Thielen Over 65.5 receiving yards50% boost available
+442 +663 at FanDuel
The Panthers didn’t put up many points last week but their offense definitely looked sharper with Thomas Brown running the show. That offense should continue to trend upwards with rookies like Young and Jonathan Mingo improving every week and getting to play a leaky Indianapolis defense this week should result in the Over cashing.
Thielen has become Young’s most reliable target and has racked up at least seven catches and 72 yards in five straight games, averaging 103 receiving yards per game over that span. The O/U on his rec yards looks mispriced when you consider his recent production and the Colts inability to stop the pass with Indy 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game (247.3).
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Colts vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Colts at -3 and the Over/Under at 45.5. Money has come in on the Panthers, with some books now pricing the Colts at -105 or below at -3 and others trimming the line to -2.5 but priced at -115 to -120.
Interestingly, the lookahead total for this game was set at just 42.5, but after the Panthers’ offense showed improvement under Brown and the Colts were torched on defense once again, the official O/U opened at 45.5. Money quickly came in on the Under, dropping that number down to 44 by Tuesday.
The Panthers scored just 15 points against the Texans last week but their offense seemed to get into rhythm and Young looked comfortable under center. Not only was that that their first victory of the year, but it was also the first time they covered since they started off the year going 0-5-1 against the spread.
The Colts are coming off a 38-27 home loss to the Saints last week. That was their third consecutive loss and their third straight game that easily cashed the Over. The Colts had gotten off to a strong start to the season, going 3-1 SU and ATS in their first four games.
