Both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans will look to get back to .500 with a win in Week 9 when the two clubs meet in Texas on Sunday afternoon. The Bucs have dropped four of their last five and enter a pivotal road game as long as a 3-point dog.
With Tampa still struggling to run the ball and Rachaad White dominating the snaps and routes in the backfield, should bettors be expecting a third straight week of elite receiving numbers from the Tampa Bay running back?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Buccaneers at Texans on November 5.
Buccaneers vs Texans odds
Buccaneers vs Texans predictions
Entering the season, Todd Bowles wanted to turn the league’s worst rushing attack into something more successful. Unfortunately for the old-school coach, that hasn’t come to fruition in 2023, as the Buccaneers rank dead-last in success rate when running the ball.
Week 7 might have been the point where Bowles realized he doesn’t have the personnel to boast a good run game as Baker Mayfield has thrown 42 passes in back-to-back weeks after averaging 32.4 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1 to 6. The game script that comes with losing four of the last five games hasn’t helped either.
One of the biggest benefactors of the increase in passing has been running back Rachaad White, who has 13 catches on 13 targets for 135 yards over the last two weeks. He also has catches of 20-plus yards in each of those weeks and has a great opportunity to top his longest reception of 12.5 this week.
The Texans struggle to defend opposing running backs, giving up 42.3 receiving yards to them per game on the season while also allowing a long reception of 13 or more yards in five straight contests.
White will have his opportunities, especially with the game script of being a dog. The RB played 81% of the snaps last week compared to Chase Edmonds’ 13% snap share, while his 62.2% route share was fourth-most on an offense that ran a 3-WR set at 82% last week vs. Buffalo.
With his receiving yard total increasing, the longest reception is a solid market to pivot to. This 12.5 total could close higher by Sunday, and if White is going to see a floor of six targets, he should have at least five cracks at breaking one for 13 or more yards. There are a lot of outs here, but garbage time and a 2-minute possession are always the best.
My best bet: Rachaad White Longest Reception Over 12.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Buccaneers vs Texans same-game parlay
Rachaad White 25+ Receiving YardsTank Dell Over 44.5 Receiving YardsOver 39.5
+400 at bet365
There isn’t an option to add a longest reception in bet365’s SGP but I’m happy to hit White’s Over receiving yards, which could close as high as 29.5 by Sunday. It’s a great matchup for White and the snap share and route share are showing that his recent spike in production should continue.
With Robert Woods out last week, Tank Dell tied for the Texans team-high with a 92.3 route share, and Woods being DNP on Wednesday is a good sign that the rookie could see big snaps again this weekend vs. a weak secondary. He only had 16 yards last week, but it was his first game in three weeks and with five of his 22 catches going for 20-plus yards, the small pass-catcher could top this on just two grabs.
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Buccaneers vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
The Bucs come into Week 9 with extra rest following Week 8’s Thursday night loss to the Bills. Despite the schedule advantage, many books have moved off of the look-ahead 2.5-point spread to a soft 3 as of Thursday.
Tampa has dropped four of their last five games, they’ve become one-dimensional again as they can’t run the ball, and Baker Mayfield has been dealing with a knee injury he picked up in Week 4. However, he did get in a full practice on Wednesday.
Tampa’s schedule does deserve some of the credit, as their last five games have come against Buffalo, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Philadelphia, who are a combined 26-14 SU and all have at least a .500 record.
The offensive matchup does favor the Bucs as Houston’s defensive weakness is vs. the pass, as it ranks eighth in success rate vs. the run but 23rd vs. the pass. There might be even more under that hood as the Texans have faced some weak QB play of late, including games vs. Bryce Young, Derek Carr, Desmond Ridder, and Kenny Pickett.
The Texans are giving up just 18.3 points per game (sixth), but sit in the bottom half of the league in total yards allowed at 350-plus. Their opponents have left points on the field to say the least.
The Bucs will also have an injury advantage this week as DT Vita Vea is back to full health after missing last week. He is rated as a Top-10 interior lineman, per Pro Football Focus. On the other side, the Texans have running back Dameon Pierce and tackle Laremy Tunsil as DNPs early in the week at practice as well as receiver Robert Woods.
The Bucs’ recent strength of schedule as well as the easy QB play the Texans have seen has me reaching for a soft Tampa +3 — even at -120. The extra prep time is also nice as a Tampa backer.
This is one of the nine games this week with a total of 41 or lower. It was 39.5 on the look-ahead and has hit as high as 41 this week. Both defenses are much better vs. the run which could lead to more passing, which favors the Over.
There is plenty of pass-catching talent on both sides and even if Pierce can’t go, Devin Singletary has been gaining trust within the offense and seeing a bump in touches. Woods sitting would also give the Texans a 3-WR set of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Noah Brown, all of whom are averaging over 14 yards per catch.
Yes, these teams are a combined 3-11 O/U on the season, but both offenses have just struggled to finish off drives with Bottom 5 red-zone offenses. I’d be very happy with an Over 39.5 but think this closes on the other side of 40.
