The Denver Broncos visit the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium today, and Gang Green is a heavy home favorite in this AFC clash.
Broncos tailback Javonte Williams has been a disappointment early on this season, but my free Broncos vs. Jets predictions and NFL picks expect an improved performance against a vulnerable New York rush defense on Sunday, September 29.
Broncos vs Jets prediction
My best betJavonte Williams Over 28.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It’s been a nightmare start on the ground for Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams, but a road game against a middling New York Jets run defense is the perfect recipe for the fourth-year back to have his best showing of the season.
Williams has been held to just 2.2 yards per carry, and he’s yet to break an explosive run of double-digit yards through three weeks.
He entered the season averaging 4.0 yards per tote through his first three years in the NFL and tied for eighth with 12 breakaway runs of 15+ yards in 2023. His 25.5 breakaway percentage was also a respectable 14th among the 35 backs with at least 150 rushing attempts.
Additionally, Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix is coming off the most well-rounded start of his early career. Keeping opposing defenses honest will be a key for the Broncos offense moving forward because Williams has faced a stacked box — eight or more defenders — on 54.2% of his carries.
I expect head coach Sean Payton to continue fostering the development of Nix, and Williams rushing against fewer stacked boxes moving forward.
Turning to the Jets, New York has allowed a healthy 4.54 yards per carry to opposing running backs, and Gang Green ranks 31st in run defense and 26th in tackling grade per PFF. While I still peg the Jets as more of a mediocre stop unit against the rush given their fourth-ranked run-stop win rate, it definitely isn’t a nightmare matchup for Williams, either.
I also value Williams’ pass-blocking ability and believe it will keep him on the field and involved in the offense despite his poor statistical start.
Javonte Williams has played the 4th most snaps in pass-pro among RBs and has kept Nix clean 100% of the time. No sacks, hits, or hurries allowed.Despite being 4th in total dropbacks, Bo Nix ONLY has a 3% sack rate.Williams isn’t going anywhere.
— Zareh Kantzabedian (@ZKantzFF) September 25, 2024
This rushing-yards total has been driven down from an opening at 32.5 at BetMGM, and now we’ve got a buyback opportunity on the decreased number. For comparison, Williams closed at 53.5 rushing yards in Week 1 and a 42.5 total last week.
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Broncos vs Jets same-game parlay
Javonte Williams Over 28.5 rushing yardsJets -2.5 (alt. spread)Garrett Wilson 50+ receiving yards
+333 at BetMGM
The Jets have the benefit of a mini-bye after trouncing the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football in Week 3, while the Broncos hit the highway for the second consecutive Sunday and third road game in four weeks.
I give Gang Green a huge advantage at quarterback, too.
Aaron Rodgers posted a 77.1 completion rate for 8.0 yards per target against the Pats, and I anticipate Nix having trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board against the Jets. New York ranks 11th in defensive DVOA while allowing the 10th-lowest EPA per play, and the Broncos sport respective 28th and 27th ranks on offense.
Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson has been largely held in check to start the year with just 15 receptions for 150 yards. He’ll also likely be shadowed all over the field by Broncos two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain on Sunday. Still, Rodgers has discussed the importance of involving Wilson in the passing attack.
I’m expecting the duo to connect for their best game this week.
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Broncos vs Jets odds
Broncos vs Jets live odds
Broncos vs Jets opening odds
- Spread: Denver +8 (-110) | New York -8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Denver +310 | New York -400
- Over/Under: Over 38.5 (-110) | Under 38.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Broncos vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been notable line movement at BetMGM for this game. New York opened as a -8 favorite and were bet down to a touchdown margin before climbing back up to -7.5 on Tuesday.
- The -7 spread only lasted a few hours at the shop, so I don’t expect this spread to drop to -7 again.
- BetMGM opened this total at 38.5, and it climbed to 39.5 on Wednesday.
- I’m expecting the number to remain in the key range of 39-41.
